Author Topic: Do we really care about Brexit  (Read 23337 times)

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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #285 on: March 03, 2019, 09:12:20 AM »
Maxi, do you realise that the Conservative party leader selection process is separate to any parliamentary decision on the way forward for BREXIT?


Most members of the Conservative Party, by far, want a clean or fully out BREXIT.
Tory MPs are a small minority of the Tory membership and all they can do in the leadership process is select 2 candidates, which are bound to be one remainder and one leaver, with the leaver ending up with a runaway win when the whole Tory membership votes.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2019, 09:16:57 AM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #286 on: March 03, 2019, 09:14:16 AM »
Exactly.

The Tories will change their leader within a year and so he or she will be the new PM without a general election.

To win the leadership vote amongst Tory members, the winning candidate will clearly campaign on the idea of a clean BREXIT (ie. fully out of the EU or at least more out than the Maybot tried to achieve).

An arrogant assumption almost at Jacob Rees Mogg standards.

A new leader maybe, but not one that's going to lead the country over the cliff edge necessarily. You forget that most Tory MP's voted remain!
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #287 on: March 03, 2019, 09:20:24 AM »
Exactly.

The Tories will change their leader within a year and so he or she will be the new PM without a general election.

To win the leadership vote amongst Tory members, the winning candidate will clearly campaign on the idea of a clean BREXIT (ie. fully out of the EU or at least more out than the Maybot tried to achieve).

An arrogant assumption almost at Jacob Rees Mogg standards.

A new leader maybe, but not one that's going to lead the country over the cliff edge necessarily. You forget that most Tory MP's voted remain!


You forget that most Tory members want to leave the EU.  The Tory Leadership process includes a vote amongst the whole Conservative party membership. There will not be another anointment made by MPs fixing it up by getting a second candidate who pulls out.


In any event, we are talking about a period in the future when a new Tory PM will have to steer the UK towards a better BREXIT, which could take several years without any cliff edge.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2019, 09:35:38 AM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #288 on: March 03, 2019, 09:36:32 AM »
Exactly.

The Tories will change their leader within a year and so he or she will be the new PM without a general election.

To win the leadership vote amongst Tory members, the winning candidate will clearly campaign on the idea of a clean BREXIT (ie. fully out of the EU or at least more out than the Maybot tried to achieve).

An arrogant assumption almost at Jacob Rees Mogg standards.

A new leader maybe, but not one that's going to lead the country over the cliff edge necessarily. You forget that most Tory MP's voted remain!


You forget that most Tory members want to leave the EU.  The Tory Leadership process includes a vote amongst the whole Conservative party membership. There will not be another anointment made by MPs fixing it up by getting a second candidate who pulls out.


In any event, we are talking about a period in the future when a new Tory PM Will have to steer the UK towards a better BREXIT, which could take several years without any cliff edge.

Again an assumption. How do you know? It was a secret ballot.

So you see Brexit being delayed indefinitely then.

 
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #289 on: March 03, 2019, 10:11:46 AM »
You are making no sense,
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Offline Michael

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #290 on: March 03, 2019, 12:50:54 PM »

Most members of the Conservative Party, by far, want a clean or fully out BREXIT.
Tory MPs are a small minority of the Tory membership and all they can do in the leadership process is select 2 candidates, which are bound to be one remainder and one leaver, with the leaver ending up with a runaway win when the whole Tory membership votes.
In March 2018 the Conservative Party had a membership of 120,000, the Bow Group have calculated that the average age of it's members is 72, membership won't have changed significantly but voters may have changed in that it is suggested that a younger electorate would support remain.
Some 70%+ conservative constituencies voted leave, however the majority of Conservative MP's supported remain, so it could well mean that a pro remain leader is elected, despite the members wishes, but either way parliament will still remain with the same split whoever is PM.
The only sure way of getting a decision is a new parliament elected on the basis of candidates declared position on Britain's position in or out of the European Union. 

 

Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #291 on: March 03, 2019, 15:02:42 PM »
You are making no sense,

You mean that you are making no sense of my posts.

Your recent posts are making huge assumptions based upon what you would like to happen.

IF the conservatives change their leader, the new leader winning might be someone who in fact didn't campaign for leadership based on a clean (no deal) (hard) Brexit at all because he / she would be chosen by conservative MP's who in fact don't want a Clean (no deal) (hard) Brexit. Alternatively you might be correct in your assumption.

You also make assumptions that most members voted to leave. They may well have but you do not know for sure and on what terms they would want to leave. (any deal) (Soft) etc.

Just because as Michael says 70%+ of constituences held by Tories voted leave, it doesn't mean the majority of voters voting leave were Tories. You get muddled and stupid people in all walks of life.

So all assumptions - not fact.

Lastly, you talked about a period in the future (after March 29th) when all this will happen. That suggests to me that you would like to see Brexit delayed. Is that what you see / would like to happen?



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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #292 on: March 03, 2019, 15:07:10 PM »


]In March 2018 the Conservative Party had a membership of 120,000, the Bow Group have calculated that the average age of it's members is 72, membership won't have changed significantly but voters may have changed in that it is suggested that a younger electorate would support remain. Some 70%+ conservative constituencies voted leave, however the majority of Conservative MP's supported remain, so it could well mean that a pro remain leader is elected, despite the members wishes, but either way parliament will still remain with the same split whoever is PM.The only sure way of getting a decision is a new parliament elected on the basis of candidates declared position on Britain's position in or out of the European Union.   

No.

The process for electing the leader of the Conservative Party involves the MPs choosing their best 2 candidates via a process of elimination and then the last 2 candidates are put to the whole party membership.

The MPs will split and support either remain or leave candidates in the end as the process of elimination involves the losing candidates asking their supporters to support the remaining candidate they prefer. This will result in one remain MP and one leave MP candidate to put to the membership.

At this point, the vast majority of members will select the Leave candidate.  All MPs will then be expected to follow their leader or they will risk deselection in any leave constituency as the general election will still be some time off.

I think if the Maybot fails to deliver BREXIT before she resigns (whether her deal or a clean BREXIT or anything in between), the next Conservative PM will begin a new attempt to negotiate BREXIT and this may well involve a delay rather than a cliff edge. Obviously, I have no crystal ball but I am certain that the next Tory PM will be a Leaver (a proper leaver not a remainer turned reluctant leaver like the Maybot).
« Last Edit: March 03, 2019, 15:09:57 PM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #293 on: March 03, 2019, 15:43:57 PM »


]In March 2018 the Conservative Party had a membership of 120,000, the Bow Group have calculated that the average age of it's members is 72, membership won't have changed significantly but voters may have changed in that it is suggested that a younger electorate would support remain. Some 70%+ conservative constituencies voted leave, however the majority of Conservative MP's supported remain, so it could well mean that a pro remain leader is elected, despite the members wishes, but either way parliament will still remain with the same split whoever is PM.The only sure way of getting a decision is a new parliament elected on the basis of candidates declared position on Britain's position in or out of the European Union.   

No.

The process for electing the leader of the Conservative Party involves the MPs choosing their best 2 candidates via a process of elimination and then the last 2 candidates are put to the whole party membership.

The MPs will split and support either remain or leave candidates in the end as the process of elimination involves the losing candidates asking their supporters to support the remaining candidate they prefer. This will result in one remain MP and one leave MP candidate to put to the membership.

At this point, the vast majority of members will select the Leave candidate. All MPs will then be expected to follow their leader or they will risk deselection in any leave constituency as the general election will still be some time off.




Bloody hell  - bribery and corruption within the conservative party! Who knew?  ;D
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Offline baldy

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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #295 on: March 06, 2019, 08:42:45 AM »
Do you trust what he says?
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #296 on: March 06, 2019, 08:46:16 AM »
Not much. I referred to this because it counters the project fear nonsense he spouted last Autumn.


I hope he goes home to Canada asap. I preferred the Ken and Eddy show, when Steady Eddy and Ken Clark seemed to know what they were doing ...
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #297 on: March 06, 2019, 11:45:48 AM »

Not much. I referred to this because it counters the project fear nonsense he spouted last Autumn.



Not really, he's still saying we should be afraid. Just not very afraid.

But he's only re-appraised the situation after what the government said it would do now if no deal. i.e. planning to cut tariffs on certain imports.
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Offline Michael

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #298 on: March 08, 2019, 07:41:12 AM »
You obviously miss the point, most Leave voters, particularly those in the North on England, felt that under the Tories things couldn't get any worse.

Online Maxi

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #299 on: March 08, 2019, 14:39:05 PM »
 Reject my Brexit deal and 'we may never leave at all', May warns


Hopefully It Will Be Rejected Then.




https://news.sky.com/story/live-theresa-may-in-last-ditch-plea-to-eu-ahead-of-brexit-vote-11658551