Author Topic: Do we really care about Brexit  (Read 85324 times)

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Online baldy

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« Last Edit: July 19, 2019, 15:55:44 PM by baldy »
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« Last Edit: August 03, 2019, 23:14:25 PM by baldy »
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Offline Maxi

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Mark Carney warns of instant shock from no-deal Brexit
« Reply #573 on: August 04, 2019, 09:25:25 AM »
Shock of no deal would be instant, says Mark Carney
A no-deal Brexit would result in an instant shock to the UK economy, the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has warned.
Items such as petrol and food would become more expensive if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, he said.
He predicted the value of the pound would fall in response to what he described as a "real economic shock".
"The change in trading relationship means that real incomes will be lower," he told the BBC's Today programme.
On Thursday, the Bank said the economy was expected to grow by 1.3% this year, lower than its earlier projection of 1.5%, if the UK leaves the EU with a deal.
It did not say what it expected to happen in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
But Mr Carney told the BBC there was a "significant possibility" that a deal would not be struck.
"The economics of no deal are that the rules of the game for exporting to Europe or importing from Europe fundamentally change," he said.
As a result, he said, "very big" and "highly profitable" industries in the UK would become "uneconomic".
Very difficult decisions will need to be taken," he said, explaining that those would have a "knock-on" effect on the economy.
He pointed to carmakers, food manufacturers and chemical firms as some of those that would be hardest hit.
"These are the sectors that have not been investing," he said.
"One of the reasons why the economy has slowed is that business investment has been very, very weak."
But Mr Carney said the Bank's response to a no-deal Brexit would not be automatic.

He explained the Bank would look at the effect on the economy of things such as car plant closures as well as a weakening pound before it decided how to respond.
"We will do everything we can in order to provide support to the economy," he said.
But he warned that a no-deal Brexit would be inflationary.
"Instantly, you have supply disruptions but you actually have businesses that are no longer economic."
Last month, the Office for Budget Responsibility warned that a no-deal Brexit would deal a £29.3bn blow to the UK economy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49203426




Online baldy

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Yes, but as I linked to before, plenty of folk want a no deal Brexit anyway for a range of reasons, including the fact that the problems will be dealt with and overcome via deals that do  expand the economy one way or another. It’s not just about total GDP in the short term. It’s a long term change ...


Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/18/may-economic-cost-no-deal-plenty-people-want-anyway/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_em
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Nasty Ghastly Grieve talks B*ll*c£s again!
« Reply #576 on: August 04, 2019, 13:00:58 PM »

Brexit: Still time to block no-deal on 31 October, senior Tory rebel says


BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49225906

Read the whole article as it explains why he is wrong. Boris would not resign, so Grieve's claim is false.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 13:12:53 PM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #577 on: August 05, 2019, 10:01:11 AM »

Yes, but as I linked to before, plenty of folk want a no deal Brexit anyway for a range of reasons, including the fact that the problems will be dealt with and overcome via deals that do  expand the economy one way or another. It’s not just about total GDP in the short term. It’s a long term change ...


Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/18/may-economic-cost-no-deal-plenty-people-want-anyway/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_em

It's the same old nonsense that if you say something often enough and loud enough you start to believe it's true.

Brexit ain't going to happen this year - unless a deal is struck that satisfies the majority in parliament. Which is unlikely. A no-deal exit is even more unlikely as there is far too much opposition to that (even if plenty of people do want it as Baldy claims).

Brexiteers were saying the same in March - "we have to leave the end of March." "It's the law!" :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

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Online baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #578 on: August 05, 2019, 10:56:26 AM »
Well, according to Boris and his chief adviser, we are leaving on 31st October and it's too late for parliamernt to stop a no deal BREXIT.  So, the only question left is whether BREXIT on 31st October will be with a "deal or no deal".

If Boris fails to Brexit by 31st October, he will be a laughing stock and the Conservative Party will be toast ... finished and banished from government for good .... so actually it makes sense that Boris is going to ensure we leave, with or without a deal on time ...

I think there will be a general election soon - either running up to 31st October or soon after - involving the Conservative Party and Brexit Party in a deal to capture Labour Leave seats for the Brexit Party and maybe even including Conservative Leave seats with a prominent Remoaner Conservative MP.

I think Boris is ruthless enough and has the correct strategic adviser to do this.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 11:00:00 AM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #579 on: August 05, 2019, 16:18:29 PM »

If Boris fails to Brexit by 31st October, he will be a laughing stock


He makes me laugh now.  ;D :laugh:



I think there will be a general election soon - either running up to 31st October or soon after - involving the Conservative Party and Brexit Party in a deal to capture Labour Leave seats for the Brexit Party and maybe even including Conservative Leave seats with a prominent Remoaner Conservative MP.



Is that even legal? Sounds like election fixing to me. Even if it is legal, it's not really ethical but then we are talking politics. A conservative/brexit party coalition doesn't sound very attractive.

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Online DORIAN

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #580 on: August 05, 2019, 17:34:49 PM »
this goes to show that with this Forum we are ardent followers of our own beliefs.
Baldy is so adamant that we can get it on... based upon what i ask. and also those who who say we are doomed are only reading an extracting the views that they then pit their spin upon it.
i am speaking ing as a farmer who heavily depends upon the subsidies to enable us to compete against lower cost of production growers across the EU

The the EU was the european market and we all benefited from this as long as we adhere to the regulations. i hope no one has to visit a european abattoir, to see the regulations being torn to threads, just to give us cheaper food
We are an island and cannot compete with the outside world when no one looks at cheap meat and the welfare standards that the meat came from.
Yes i am proud to be British, but not so naive to think we have all the answers.
so much cross country companies have benefited from our and theirs cross  techknowledgey,. we cannot let this go

instead of those who firmly believe in leave and those who dont , you will soon have to go one way or another and except it. SIO, Farage will say to Boris,.
" dont contest a safe labour seat, we will" and before you know it farage is the next PM....... Im sure Baldy, as he always does will come back at me, and rightly so but if this happens Armageddon is NOW!!
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Offline Maxi

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #581 on: August 05, 2019, 17:44:49 PM »
Tory donor bets £300 million on losses for UK firms after no-deal Brexit

Crispin Odey, the pro-Brexit Conservative donor, reportedly waged a £300m bet against some of Britain’s biggest businesses on the implication their share prices will crash after Brexit.

The multimillionaire hedge fund tycoon’s company, Odey Asset Management, is understood to have taken out £299m in “short” positions on at least 16 firms including Royal Mail and Intu, the shopping centre owner. 

Shorting involves borrowing currency or shares and selling immediately in the hope of buying them back later for less and pocketing the difference.

On 23 July, when Boris Johnson was elected Tory party leader, Mr Odey’s company reportedly increased its “short” position in the high street lender Metro Bank. It currently has a £17.6m bet against the lender, according to a report in the Sunday Times.
Mr Odey is said to have backed shares in UK firms, such as supermarket chain Tesco, to rise.

Ian Murray, the Labour MP who champions the People’s Vote campaign, said: “It’s a disgrace to democracy that Johnson is happy to take money from a man who is betting against the country and who stands to make a mint if he forces no deal on us.

“It might not be illegal, but it stinks.”

In June, the City grandee donated £10,000 to Mr Johnson’s leadership campaign.
He previously contributed more than £800,000 to pro-Brexit campaigns and £32,000 to UKip during Nigel Farage’s tenure.

The businessman, thought to be worth £750million, made a reported £220million in 2016 after betting that a leave result would trigger the pound to crash.

Hours after the referendum result, he told the BBC: “There’s that Italian expression – ‘Il mattino ha l’oro in bocca’ – the morning has gold in its mouth, and never has one felt so much that idea as this morning.”

Mr Odey did not respond to the newspaper’s claims.
https://inews.co.uk/news/tory-donor-bets-300-million-on-losses-for-uk-firms-after-no-deal-brexit/?fbclid=IwAR0IHnYMBE7u8St4PemxvzD9tK97peQsOjyO80kis0v6MkGj3cipLrGsUdk

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #582 on: August 05, 2019, 18:26:09 PM »
George Soros is famous for betting against Sterling just before the UK was forced to crash out of the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) which involved managing the value of £ sterling to follow the Euro within a narrow band. Soros used his huge hedge fund to spend Billions against sterling and, in effect, caused the UK to crash out of the ERM. The Bank of England wasted Billions on the whole exercise. 

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

Soros is feted as a sage and one of the most wealthy men in the world who advises Bill Gates on how to invest his spare Billions.

What this "Tory Donor" is doing is absolutely small fry stuff compared to what Soros did and still does ...

Shorting uses contracts to sell stuff at future moments in time at an agreed price when the "seller" has not yet bought the stuff. It is based on betting that the price will fall so that the sell contract can be honoured by buying the tradeable stuff later and at a lower price.  It involves huge risks that the price goes the other way.

It is not immoral or illegal. It is simply high stakes trading with huge sums of money and ultimately the other trader is responsible for agreeing to the trade of their stuff (shares, money, bonds etc) at the price agreed.

The fact that serious traders are now betting on a Brexit by 31 October tells us that serious people now believe it will happen ...    Watch for the EU to come asking for urgent talks with Boris to agree some new deal which will not be described as an amendment to the existing but rejected deal ...
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 18:32:11 PM by baldy »
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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #583 on: August 05, 2019, 18:37:39 PM »
this goes to show that with this Forum we are ardent followers of our own beliefs.
Baldy is so adamant that we can get it on... based upon what i ask. and also those who who say we are doomed are only reading an extracting the views that they then pit their spin upon it.
i am speaking ing as a farmer who heavily depends upon the subsidies to enable us to compete against lower cost of production growers across the EU

The the EU was the european market and we all benefited from this as long as we adhere to the regulations. i hope no one has to visit a european abattoir, to see the regulations being torn to threads, just to give us cheaper food
We are an island and cannot compete with the outside world when no one looks at cheap meat and the welfare standards that the meat came from.
Yes i am proud to be British, but not so naive to think we have all the answers.
so much cross country companies have benefited from our and theirs cross  techknowledgey,. we cannot let this go

instead of those who firmly believe in leave and those who dont , you will soon have to go one way or another and except it. SIO, Farage will say to Boris,.
" dont contest a safe labour seat, we will" and before you know it farage is the next PM....... Im sure Baldy, as he always does will come back at me, and rightly so but if this happens Armageddon is NOW!!


It won't be Armageddon.  Farmers will have their losses covered via Government subsidies.   Right now I'm expecting lamb to possibly be available in the shops at about 10-25% of the normal price from November onwards and I'm wondering whether to buy a freezer just to store a years supply of my favourite meat.  Apparently, the country does not have enough cold stores to freeze all the lamb that may not be sold to the EU if we have no deal and so it would have to be sold by any means available or destroyed. I'm pretty sure it would be sold cheap and for the consumers delight (mine certainly).
« Last Edit: August 06, 2019, 09:31:59 AM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #584 on: August 05, 2019, 19:53:07 PM »
You make me laugh louder than BoJo and the things he comes out with.
Even if the government subsidises the Farmers to that extent - which I doubt, you’re quite happy to profit from British farmers demise. Shame on you!
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