Topic: Do we really care about Brexit

[Bob DeBilda]

Just to balance up the arguments.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/01/brexit-pointless-masochistic-ambition-history-done

[baldy]

It's pure guff - very well written guff - by a novelist rather than a proper economist who actually understands world trade and the opportunities rather than stirring up fears and passions based on guff.

The reality is that the UK now has a real leader in charge. Although I don't think Boris himself is properly commercially aware enough to conduct trade negotiations, I am sure he has really good advisers who do know how to negotiate properly. He won't give away all our negotiating strengths by saying that we will capitulate beforehand - which is what that utter waste of space Treasonous May would have done.

I have to say that Labour and the LibDems will be utterly destroyed within 4 years when the whole population sees how all the lies and nonsense spun by them is exposed for what it is.  TRIPE.

The UK buys £90 Bn   (Billion = 1,000 x Million) per annum more from the EU than the EU buys from us. That is a massive negotiating advantage. A large chunk of that is German cars and another large chunk is French and Spanish food / wines etc.

We have the EU by the short and curlies.

Anyone who fails to see the commercial advantage of this negotiating position should just shut up and realise that they have nothing useful to say on the subject other than utter claptrap to show they are complete A$$holes ...

I have to laugh at the idea that the EU would threaten us with tariffs if we don't agree their rules or that they would impede the flow of materials at ports for our car industry. Remember: Remoaning minnies keep bleating on about how just in time car manufacturers will move abroad if the EU imposes barriers. This is just an empty threat because we could just impose tarrifs or other barriers to German cars .... heck the UK could simply buy its own cars in the end if the EU actually tried to cut its own throat.

As soon as German car manufacturers get fearful about their car sales to the UK, the EU will capitulate.

The same goes for Spanish and French food.  We can simply get it all from the US or other American countries or even further afield via ship. It arrives by ship anyway ...

[Shizzy]

I was a remainer, but not a remoaner.

It's difficult to find unbiased reporting as all our news outlets appear to lean one way or another, and supporters of one argument can always find source material to support their argument.

However, if we apply some common sense to the argument it is clear that the EU would be very reluctant to slap tariffs on goods coming to the UK for a number of reasons. Firstly we import more from them than we export. Secondly, nothing they sell to us can't be exported from elsewhere, so if they make their products more expensive consumers and importers will simply find the same goods from outside the EU eg fruit from Israel instead of Spain.

My brother in law lives in Germany and works in the car industry, and despite the media portraying the German car industry as strong it is actually having the same difficulties as the car industry is in the UK, the last thing they want is exports to the UK drying up.

[Bob DeBilda]

The EU wouldn't 'slap' tariffs on goods they export to us but we might have to if we have trade deals with the rest of the world on WTO rules = higher prices for consumers.

It's not just about trade though. It's about sharing knowledge, science, environmental matters, security etc. Joined up thinking if you like. Or all singing from the same hymn book. I know the British are known historically as being innovators, inventors and leaders but joint enterprise with Europe surely has to be better?

Thanks for maths lesson Baldy. Now we know it is going to cost the country £105,000,000,000 to have a half hour quicker journey to Birmingham. Which is a relief because pre 1974 it would have cost £105,000,000,000,000. 

[mojo]

I've never been convinced by "they need us more than we need them" argument, somewhere between 45 and 49% of our total exports are to the EU, by comparison 8% of the total EU trade is with the UK.
There is variation within the countries of the EU, Germany runs the greatest trade surplus whilst Ireland is our biggest surplus. The UK is not the largest EU export market, that would the USA although the UK is a close second followed by China and Switzerland.
So we come on to the classic argument that Germanys car industry will not allow no deal, the throwaway counter is that they certainly didn't intervene during the withdrawal negotiations, so should we expect them to act differently now?  Further they have consistently stated that the integrity of the EU single market is more important than the UK market.  The UK accounts for 10% of the EU car exports, the SMMT state that no deal and tariffs is likely to be fatal for the UK motor industry due to loss of competitiveness  and the intertwined logisitics train.

So I agree that £90Bn is a good figure for negotiating and should be used ruthlessly but when compared 45% to 8% it's not quite so rosy.

So just for fun, a separate question:

Have we or have we not left the EU?

Cheers
Mojo

[baldy]

Don't confuse the EU with Europe. We will never leave Europe.

We have left the EU, but our legal arrangements are in a transition period.

[Bob DeBilda]

The same goes for Spanish and French food.  We can simply get it all from the US or other American countries or even further afield via ship. It arrives by ship anyway ...

If it ain't from France or Spain then it ain't French or Spanish...

[mojo]

Don't confuse the EU with Europe. We will never leave Europe.

We have left the EU, but our legal arrangements are in a transition period.

I'm not confusing the two.
So why do you believe we have left the EU rather than just relinquishing our voting rights?

Mojo

[baldy]

The same goes for Spanish and French food.  We can simply get it all from the US or other American countries or even further afield via ship. It arrives by ship anyway ...

If it ain't from France or Spain then it ain't French or Spanish...

I meant that similar food could be sourced very easily from elsewhere - heck, we could even buy more of our own food if it can be grown in the UK.

[baldy]

Don't confuse the EU with Europe. We will never leave Europe.

We have left the EU, but our legal arrangements are in a transition period.

I'm not confusing the two.
So why do you believe we have left the EU rather than just relinquishing our voting rights?

Mojo

We have legally left. The divorce is done and the divorce costs agreed.  We are left in a transition period during which it was agreed that legal arrangements stay the same to help with a smooth transition.

I am in no doubt that remoaners will constantly pick at the details until the final deal is done and there will be wobbly moments when we threaten to go onto WTO trade terms if the EU will not agree a sensible no-tariffs free trade deal. As I've said before, we will win that one because the EU will go into straightforward panic if we ever slap tariffs onto German car or Spanish / French food / wine / sparkling wine / fruit imports ....

Incidentally, the latest nonsense about Spain wanting a veto unless they get Gibraltar back can be laughed off because their economy would go straight into serious meltdown if we slapped tariffs on their food exports to the UK.

[Bob DeBilda]

The same goes for Spanish and French food.  We can simply get it all from the US or other American countries or even further afield via ship. It arrives by ship anyway ...

If it ain't from France or Spain then it ain't French or Spanish...

I meant that similar food could be sourced very easily from elsewhere - heck, we could even buy more of our own food if it can be grown in the UK.

Not good enough Baldy! If I want French Cheese I want it from France and I don't want to pay more for it and certainly don't want it made in USA or elsewhere. This is NOT what we voted for!

I expect this government to negotiate an appropriate deal that gets me my French cheese!!

[baldy]

So do I!


But it might take a bit of wrangling to get there.

[mojo]

Don't confuse the EU with Europe. We will never leave Europe.

We have left the EU, but our legal arrangements are in a transition period.

I'm not confusing the two.
So why do you believe we have left the EU rather than just relinquishing our voting rights?

Mojo

We have legally left. The divorce is done and the divorce costs agreed.  We are left in a transition period during which it was agreed that legal arrangements stay the same to help with a smooth transition.

I am in no doubt that remoaners will constantly pick at the details until the final deal is done and there will be wobbly moments when we threaten to go onto WTO trade terms if the EU will not agree a sensible no-tariffs free trade deal. As I've said before, we will win that one because the EU will go into straightforward panic if we ever slap tariffs onto German car or Spanish / French food / wine / sparkling wine / fruit imports ....

Incidentally, the latest nonsense about Spain wanting a veto unless they get Gibraltar back can be laughed off because their economy would go straight into serious meltdown if we slapped tariffs on their food exports to the UK.

sorry not convinced, we are in the single market, we have free movement labour, when we travel within the EU we use the EU immigration lines, fully bound by all EU regulations, cannot implement any trade deals and we are still bound by the European Court of Justice. We have just relinquished our voice. To me, this suggests that we remain in the EU until we exit those requirements at the end of this year. To use your analogy the divorce is agreed in other words the decree nisi has been issued but not the decree absolute, that occurs in December.

Your second point about trade agreement is flawed. You cannot threaten WTO rules, that is the default position anything else is better than the default. Secondly the EU nations have already taken the basic steps to manage no deal by employing more customs officers, we haven't even started to recruit or even more basically fully identified the required numbers.
I do think EU unity will be tested more than during the withdrawal talks but I believe anyone who thinks German car makers will compromise the integrity single market for the UK is deluding themselves.
I completely agree that the way Spain is being portrayed is utter  nonsense. They want an agreement with the UK but if they don't get their way with Gib  they'll ensure that Gib is excluded from the main deal and that the already agreed 4 MOUs remain in place.

Cheers
Mojo

[baldy]

Just as well that your opinion does not matter. The Government is run by Brexiteers.


Remoaners lost.  Get over it.

[mojo]

Just as well that your opinion does not matter. The Government is run by Brexiteers.


Remoaners lost.  Get over it.

I thought long and hard about how I could respond to this.  I thought I could say I got over the result the day after the referendum but that is irrelevant. I thought I could point out the if the promises of the referendum were to be kept that would be acceptable  but again it's irrelevant. So I think I'll keep it simple. I will point out every negative impact caused directly or indirectly by brexit, every time a brexiteer lies about the benefits I'll point that out too. Should it all go wrong (I really hope that it doesn't, we all have to live together) I will point out that brexiteers said that there would be no downsides. These are my democratic rights, as is the right to campaign to rejoin should I chose to do so.

Cheers
Mojo