Author Topic: Do we really care about Brexit  (Read 293280 times)

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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #765 on: February 06, 2020, 20:48:59 pm »
My comment was flippant. You can say what you like but to me it is mostly assertions based on little factual evidence. Indeed, most claims that things will go wrong have simply not occurred except in the minds of Remoaners.

Just give it a rest.

If you are a LibDem, please do feel free to bleat on about rejoining the EU as soon as your party can organise it. That will mean your party remains insignificant forever.

If you are not a LbDem, well done!
« Last Edit: February 06, 2020, 20:52:18 pm by baldy »
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Offline mojo

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #766 on: February 06, 2020, 21:11:38 pm »
Thanks for the admission that your comment was flippant , it can be hard to discern in bland written word of forums. I am not a Lib Dem, so you put your mind at rest.
As to your other statement, I try to use verifiable evidence, I'll leave assertions to those who from their opinions in the many echo chambers that can be found on social media.  I try to use evidence from the NAO  or the ONS and from the EU itself. I try read a wide range papers from the Independent at one extreme to the Express at the other.

So will I give a rest? Very unlikely 😈

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Offline baldy

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Panicked EU goes into Brexit meltdown + Britain finally has the upper hand
« Reply #767 on: February 12, 2020, 07:22:07 am »
Telegraph:  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/07/panicked-eu-goes-brexit-meltdown-britain-finally-has-upper-hand/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_em

As the panicked EU goes into Brexit meltdown, Britain finally has the upper hand

It is becoming desperately clear that the EU has no actual negotiation strategy



The EU is scoffing with panic. This week, its leaders neurotically laughed off the threat of a Parliament shutdown, as bureaucrats slammed their fists over post-Brexit budget cuts. Press officers tuttingly buried an economic report warning that Brexit will rock bloc economies. But they struggled to firefight raging speculation as to who might follow Britain out the door. As rumours rumbled of an Italexit debt crisis, Marine Le Pen thundered that a global Eurosceptic movement has infiltrated Brussels.

Perhaps the most intriguing development this week, however, is Michel Barnier’s shift in persona. Mere months ago, Mr Barnier was gloomily instructing Britain to sign up to vassalage. Lecture highlights  included “why Britain must take responsibility” (by becoming an EU satellite state) and why “choices” (for example liberty) must have “consequences”. But suddenly, the school master has a snake oil salesman. His arid presentations on Britain’s self-inflicted fate have morphed into buttery pitches for “a best in class free trade agreement”.

Such a “best in class” deal could be otherwise described as Theresa Mayite vassalage. It entails sucking Britain into megalomaniac defence projects, allowing Brussels to plunder Britain’s fishing waters, and blessing Britain with freedom for the small price of sacrificing its competitiveness. This “exceptional offer” is being gift-wrapped free of charge in the tangled red ribbons of state aid paperwork and taxation regulations. Available for a limited time only (expires Dec 2020).

In reality, though Brussels knows that its chance to flog Britain the worst trade deal in history is slipping away. It can no longer fall back on the backstop to keep us locked in Hotel California. Boris Johnson’s thumping majority also means Britain’s "no deal" bargaining chip is back in play: a WTO Brexit would pass through Parliament reasonably comfortably. Revelations this week that, in the event of no deal, Japanese car giant Nissan would consider doubling down on the UK to boost its domestic market share, and protect its Sunderland plant, underline the inconvenient truth: Project Fear premonitions are overblown, and Britain could cope perfectly well without a trade deal.

It is also becoming embarrassingly clear that the EU has no actual strategy. Only the clapped out choreography of a collapsing robo-bureaucracy. The most tedious of its “secret moves” is sequencing. Granted, this was how Brussels tripped up that lurching political equivalent to two left feet, Theresa May. She sealed her fate when she foolishly agreed to settle Northern Ireland before penning a divorce settlement.

But the idea that Boris Johnson’s government would fall for this again is laughable. Still the EU tries its luck: this week Mr Barnier said that before signing up to a trade deal, Britain would have to agree to the EU’s conditions - effectively trying to turn fishing and Gibraltar into the new Irish Border.

Another of the EU’s recycled moves is heel dragging. It intends to bog Britain down with absurd and nonsensically disparate demands until the deadline is near. The idea being that Boris Johnson will feel political pressure to avoid breaking his promise to settle Brexit by the end of the year - and thus sign up to a dud deal.

Britain’s counter-move is already evident - to negotiate trade deals with the United States and other countries, as talks with Brussels flounder; Cummings and co are determined to send out the message that if the EU does not want to engage in talks then that it can go jogging.

Indeed, Trade Secretary Liz Truss announced on Thursday that Britain is seeking huge reductions in tariffs from a trade deal with the United States. The Government also intends to begin negotiations with Japan, Australia and New Zealand in the coming months.

And so the EU gets more and more desperate. In a stumbling tribute to Orwellian doublespeak, its most ridiculous new wheeze is semantic. It is genuinely trying to get Britain to accidentally enslave itself by changing the meaning of basic words.

This includes the preposition “In”. Britain has rejected staying “in” the single market, with all the accompanying constrictions and conditions. Brussels’ solution? Offer “access” to the single market, with all the accompanying constrictions and conditions.

Then there is the oldest trick of the bureaucratic sociopath: the unflinching lie. My favourite peddled by the EU this week is that free movement must continue as the condition for any trade deal. Even though the EU has, in the Political Declaration, conceded the precise contrary.

It is increasingly clear that Brussels is the new Theresa May of these negotiations. And it is finally heading for a rude awakening.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 09:08:23 am by baldy »
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Offline Shizzy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #768 on: February 12, 2020, 09:36:19 am »
Obviously from a pro-Brexit source, and I'm sure Maxi could link you to an opposing view.

The tactic of looking elsewhere whilst negotiating with the EU is a good tactic, you really don't want to put all your eggs in the EU basket. Equally, I don't think the UK should hang its hat on a US deal. Trump has shown all he is worried about is the US (quite rightly). He may give us a good deal just to rub the EU's nose in it, not beyond the realms of possibility as he isn't a fan of the EU, but I think this would be unlikely.

I think the EU is worried about other countries following us out. If after a few years the UK hasn't gone down the plughole as many remoaners predict I think countries like Greece, Italy and France may well leave. I have relatives in Germany and Italy, and it's not all rosy there despite what our press and the EU would have us believe.



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Offline Shizzy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #769 on: February 12, 2020, 09:41:29 am »
To be honest, even if the UK economy grew by 10% after BREXIT the remoaners would only say "well it would have grown by 20% if we'd stayed in"
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Offline Pugwash

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #770 on: February 12, 2020, 15:45:47 pm »
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the puppet master shows his tenous grip on reality, or is it just his contempt for the electorate?


Offline Shizzy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #771 on: February 12, 2020, 15:53:01 pm »
To be fair he's just showing his contempt for the biased BBC by taking the pi$$ out of them and they don't realise.
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Offline Pugwash

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #772 on: February 12, 2020, 16:02:55 pm »
Perhaps,  but if he didn't want to answer a valid question, it would be so much easier to  just say " no comment" or even just ignore them.  Still, it was another distraction from Goves admission of  border checks, delays, etc.

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #773 on: February 12, 2020, 16:15:26 pm »
Cummings' comment reminded me of the time when Eric Cantona said something left field about a seagull and fish instead of answering a question about football.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/when-the-seagulls-follow-the-trawler-it-is-because-they-think-sardines-will-be-thrown-into-the-sea-1613641.html
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Offline Shizzy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #774 on: February 12, 2020, 16:51:20 pm »
it would be so much easier to  just say " no comment" or even just ignore them. 

He does that as well. I find it quite amusing to be honest, watching the press get their knickers in a twist. The press seems to think that people have to talk to them and get quite narky when they don't. He plays they press like a fiddle.

The press is also becoming less important to governments, historically they would need the press in order to 'talk' to the public, however with social media and the internet the government don't need them to do this, they can just pump out their own message without any spin the press want to put on the message, and of course, putting their own spin on it.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 09:50:19 am by Shizzy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #775 on: February 13, 2020, 16:07:07 pm »
Cummings really has got a tight grip on BoJo's strings !

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/13/sajid-javid-resigns-as-chancellor-amid-boris-johnson-reshuffle

Not that I really care but I thought 'getting brexit done' was supposed to free the country of un-elected dictators..
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Offline Shizzy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #776 on: February 13, 2020, 17:32:10 pm »
From all accounts, he's a rather unpleasant individual.
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #777 on: February 13, 2020, 17:49:08 pm »
He does not suffer fools gladly and makes little attempt to be diplomatic with fools who are so plainly out of their depth, overpaid and are actually digging deeper right in front of him.

Actually, I think he's great and right!

My understanding is that Boris is completely in charge of him, but lets Dominic Cummings take the "credit" or "criticism" etc for unpopular decisions.  It reminds me of senior directors who arrive at a troubled firm to focus on Change Management, meaning they will personally handle the sackings and redundancies needed, and they themselves get the rewards and bonuses previously agreed but also "lose" their job when they move onto the next mission.

Longleat did much the same things a decade or so ago when a new director was brought in to make all the tough changes and then he left so that Lord Weymouth (Lord Bath's son) could take over personally as if none of it was to do with him.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 17:55:52 pm by baldy »
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Offline mojo

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #778 on: February 13, 2020, 17:55:57 pm »
There are some interesting statements in that Telegraph article with two in particular worth exploring more.

The Nissan plant plan in the event of no deal has me puzzled, don't get me wrong I really think this is good news but I wonder about the logic. With a trade deal between EU and Japan agreed what is the benefit to Nissan? They can't be planning to increase exports to Europe from Sunderland as these will attract tariffs that don't apply to cars made in Japan. I note they say that Nissan hopes to increase UK sales, so my assumption; that may be wrong is that Sunderland becomes a factory supplying the UK domestic market only. If this is the case then we will need to buy a lot more Nissans and that the capacity at Sunderland will be reduced to match the UK market. It is still good news for the people of Sunderland

The US trade deal comment made me smile, it was announced on the 27th of January that the US will not negotiate a deal with UK until they conclude a deal with the EU first. The reason? The EU is too big a market for the US to push around and that the frame work for the trade negotiations already exist and none of this exists with UK. This was not reported in the UK press but covered in the media.

We'll just have to see how this plays out this year.

Cheers
Mojo

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #779 on: February 13, 2020, 18:05:20 pm »
Mojo

I too had to think about these two points.

On Nissan, I happened to watch a TV programme that mentioned this (Andrew Neil on a Politics Live show last week, I think) and the point made was that Nissan believe that if tariffs are raised by the EU on sales to the EU, the UK government will respond in kind, resulting in a huge increase in sales of UK-built Nissan cars in the UK.  This fits with all previous speculation on this because the May Government was accused of offering illegal subsidies to support the business but the Government and Nissan denied this occurred or that it would be necessary.

As for the US, I thinks its obvious that they will do any deal that benefits the US any time they want because they can - they have the capacity to handle negotiations with various countries at once and Congress would pass any deal that is good for the US. The trick for the UK is to find a deal that is mutually-beneficial to the US and UK. I believe that this would occur industry by industry as a big deal would take too long. It will probably start with food.  I sense that the UK population is being prepared to understand that there is no such thing as Chlorinated Chicken. It's chlorine-washed chicken and the UK has chlorine in its drinking water anyway ...   Also, the UK has lots of food producers who would love to see the USA market opened up as they have quality goods that more-discerning (and wealthier) Yanks want.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 18:22:22 pm by baldy »
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