Author Topic: Do we really care about Brexit  (Read 127510 times)

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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #585 on: August 05, 2019, 20:04:57 PM »
But, nothing I said was about our farmers' demise. It was about the Government continuing subsidies and throwing in extra subsidies where farmers cannot sell their goods to the EU due to the tariffs added if we Brexit without a deal.

You've misunderstood what I said.

Farmers will be fine.  They may end up selling to different countries or producing different products, but the government will subsidise the losses caused by tariffs imposed as a result of a no deal BREXIT.  The government has no choice but to do this or it will have all sorts of problems to handle that mean they absolutely must keep farming going .... and updating ...

It is worth remembering an important fact that arises from a no deal Brexit:

The UK has a huge trade deficit with the EU. They sell far more to us than we sell to them. So, if WTO tariffs are imposed due to a no deal Brexit, the UK government will be collecting masses more tariffs which can be used to pay for farming subsidies.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 20:27:41 PM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #586 on: August 05, 2019, 21:32:51 PM »
There is no such thing as “WTO tariffs”: the WTO does not itself determine tariff rates, and it does not require member countries to charge tariffs on their imports.

Any tariffs applied to imports are paid by the importing company's, who pay that to the customs. You're saying the government will use that money to subsidise company's that export. Meanwhile the importing company's are out of pocket. Who's going to make that up? You and I as consumers will.

Simply put, goods imported from Europe if we leave with no deal will cost more to buy. You carry on with your deep freezer plan Baldy, only if your planning on buying one get it now because after end of October and we leave without a deal as you want, it's going to cost you more. Unless you buy a cheap Chinese one which will probably break down before Christmas and ruin your dinner.
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #587 on: August 05, 2019, 21:56:23 PM »
You are getting bogged down in detail and not seeing the overall effect.  Overall, as a result of WTO trading with a no deal Brexit, the UK government will be collecting way more tariffs (via Customs) than before, so it will have more in the kitty to support businesses that need it.

We were talking about farmers, so the issue there was mainly about selling their produce into the EU with higher tariffs applied. This will have to be overcome with subsidies to the farmers ...

When talking about importers, if tarrifs are applied (in line with WTO terms), the UK government will be quids in. If UK consumers then buy less from other countries (EU or not), those countries will be keener to complete a trade deal with the UK.

No-one ever said that a no deal Brexit would be easy ....     Ahem ... I know someone said getting a deal would be easy but clearly that was assuming a competent PM and we all know how horribly wrong that assumption turned out to be as a result of TM being totally incapable of handling the issues. What we needed in a PM was good political intuition and commercial awareness not someone who incorrectly thought that being unable to communicate or dance or negotiate was a virtue and instead was just obstinate and talentless and useless ... and on a personal note ... just awfully ugly  as well ...
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 21:59:56 PM by baldy »
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Offline baldy

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Re: No-deal Brexit now expected from Boris Johnson ...
« Reply #588 on: August 05, 2019, 23:06:13 PM »

Telegraph:  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/05/no-deal-brexit-now-expected-boris-johnson-dominic-cummings-sets/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_em



Brussels believes that Britain will leave the EU without a deal after accepting that Boris Johnson "isn’t bluffing", the Telegraph understands.

EU leaders are now working on "a working hypothesis of no deal" following a meeting on Monday between Commission officials and Brexit diplomats from each of the 27 EU countries, amid mounting speculation Mr Johnson will call a general election after October 31.

It comes as all government departments in Whitehall were given a 48-hour deadline to prove their readiness for no deal. The EU-27 is understood to be shaken by reports that Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson’s chief strategist, has said it is too late for MPs to prevent a no deal exit on Halloween.

EU officials had been confident that Mr Johnson would not force Britain out without a deal but meetings with his senior adviser David Frost last week have changed their minds along with newspaper articles including a confrontational opinion piece written by Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay.

"Our working hypothesis is now no deal," said an EU source after the meeting, where diplomats agreed they could not rely on MPs to prevent a disorderly withdrawal.

 Brussels has been shaken by Dominic Cummings' insistence that there is nothing MPs can do to stop no deal

“It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Mr Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario"

Mr Johnson is yet to meet any EU leaders or officials in person, which has surprised Brussels and added to the conviction Mr Johnson is not prepared to compromise.

On Monday, Mr Cummings allegedly threatened Downing Street staff with the sack if they try to block no deal during a blistering attack on Remainer former cabinet ministers who he accused of ‘frustrating’ Brexit during their time in office.

The former Vote Leave boss “absolutely tore into” former chancellor Philip Hammond and Greg Clark, the former business secretary, during the 7.55am meeting at Number 10, when he called on SpAds to detail the status of every government department’s no deal planning by Wednesday morning.

“He basically said that Hammond and Clark had not only failed to prepare for no deal but actively blocked it,” said an insider. He said: ‘I know what’s happened is not your fault - it’s Hammond and Clark’s fault. He absolutely tore into them.

“But then he said: ‘If you don’t flag problems now and they blow up in the next two weeks then it will be your fault. He said he wanted a note from all government departments in the next 48 hours detailing what they had done to prepare for no deal and what more needed to be done.”

A source close to Mr Cummings confirmed he had said Mr Hammond and Mr Clark “did not want the country to be ready for no deal for political purposes” and “neglected all sorts of things.”

EU officials are now viewing the October EU summit in Brussels as the "no deal Brexit summit", whereas before they had expected EU-27 leaders to mull over another British request to extend the Article 50 deadline.

It comes as Mr Frost, known as Mr Johnson’s EU sherpa, reportedly told the EU that Britain planned to negotiate a free trade agreement with Brussels after a no deal Brexit.

Brussels is still expected to ask for a backstop style solution for the Irish border and payment of the £39 billion pound Brexit bill as a condition for opening trade talks after no deal.

Diplomats are now waiting to hear what Mr Johnson tells EU leaders when he meets them in the margins of the G7 meeting in France later this month but there is no expectation that will change the situation.

Before the meeting in Brussels, the European Commission insisted that it would not be to blame if there was a no deal Brexit. A spokeswoman said that no deal would hurt both the UK and the EU, with a “serious economic impact” on Britain “proportionally higher” than in Europe. 

In March the EU said it had completed its no deal Brexit plans - a package of 46 measures are designed to mitigate the worst impact, including the loss of British payments into the EU budget and compensate EU fisherman for Brexit-related losses.

The measures cover the financial sector, transport and travel, customs and the export of goods, climate policy, agriculture and fisheries, social security coordination, and international trade.

“For a negotiation to be successful it takes two to tango,” the spokeswoman added. “If the music and the rhythm is not right then well then you have no dance but that doesn’t mean that it was a failure.” The spokeswoman said the EU was sticking to its red line that it would not renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement.  Mr Johnson insists that it must be renegotiated and the Irish backstop removed.

The Prime Minister’s spokesman reiterated that removing the “undemocratic” backstop from would represent “significant progress”, suggesting that the government could be tempted to bring the Brexit deal back to the Commons if the major concession was made.

But he added that Britain will be leaving the EU on October 31 "whatever the circumstances".

As reported in the Sunday Telegraph, Mr Cummings has told ministers that even if the Government lost a vote of confidence when Parliament returns in September Mr Johnson could remain in power by delaying an election until after October 31 by which time, under current legislation, Britain would be out of the EU.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he agreed with Mr Cummings, who is reportedly preparing for a "people versus the politicians" poll if MPs again seek to frustrate the 2016 referendum result.

The Tory rebels’ numbers have been potentially boosted by the so-called ‘Gaukeward squad’ of former cabinet Remainers, including former justice secretary David Gauke, Mr Hammond and Mr Clark.

An ally of Mr Hammond said Mr Cummings’ claim about him blocking Brexit was “not a fair accusation”.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2019, 23:08:54 PM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #589 on: August 06, 2019, 10:23:08 AM »


You are getting bogged down in detail and not seeing the overall effect.  Overall, as a result of WTO trading with a no deal Brexit, the UK government will be collecting way more tariffs (via Customs) than before, so it will have more in the kitty to support businesses that need it.




It's the detail that affects daily life. It's important!

Yes, the UK government will be collecting way more tariffs (via customs) but that money will be coming from UK importing company's. It will be money that's already in the UK. The importing company's will pass that cost onto the consumers. Equals higher prices on the high street.

The exporters (farmers for example) will probably export less because their product will cost more to the country that is importing it (due to tariffs) so the demand will drop. Farmers will need subsidising or they will go out of business. (but hey, you can buy up all the spare lamb)

There are only losers with a no deal Brexit.
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Offline DORIAN

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #590 on: August 06, 2019, 13:28:22 PM »
subsidies are due to be overhauled in 2022, the subsidy to be replaced for farmers who protect our wild flowers and wildlife etc. strange that all the money that will support farmers will go on pretty flowers etc, when maybe, just maybe, shoppers find themselves paying top drawer money for their food. Post war 75% of salary went to groceries, today 22%

yes farmers are very subsidised and the old format , "never seen a poor Farmer is no longer" Land owners as oppose dto tenant farmers are governed by weather patterns and currency along with cheap imports where the well being of livestock is much to be desired,
everyone in the livestock and arable sector are sh...i thesleves, but as well all know..... we look after our own dont we, and bugger everyone else
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #591 on: August 06, 2019, 16:27:07 PM »
subsidies are due to be overhauled in 2022, the subsidy to be replaced for farmers who protect our wild flowers and wildlife etc. strange that all the money that will support farmers will go on pretty flowers etc,

DORIAN, without wild flowers and wildlife you wouldn't be able to grow any crops. You know that as well as anyone I would hope?
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Offline DORIAN

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #592 on: August 07, 2019, 07:48:31 AM »
yes agreed we need diversification and Bees for Pollination, but not all foods depend upon this process
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Offline DORIAN

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #593 on: August 07, 2019, 17:37:43 PM »
the need for Bees in oil seed rape is essential, but the staple diet of the world is wheat, that needs winds  to pollinate to produce wheat for Bread, Cereals, Biscuits, etc
we have been banned from ill informed politicians that Neonicotinoids have killed the bee numbers, they forget the hard winter that killed the bees and as a result of do gooders, the chemical that controlled the FLEA BEETLE  that destroyed the crop has now meant that Bee Farmers are crying that they do not have enough OSR to supply thir honey yields... Funny old World.
Takes 5 million pound to get chemicals through registration, wonder if people know that!!
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #594 on: August 08, 2019, 08:48:09 AM »
Yes, there's always a problem for every solution.

Neonicotinoids have been banned because it killed bees. Perhaps it is now time to look at alternatives such as growing plants along aside OSR that attracts the flea beetles away from it.

It's always going to be a battle to get it right.

And...getting back on topic-ish. That's something that having a CAP can eventually solve. Another reason why a no deal Brexit would be wrong!
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Offline DORIAN

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #595 on: August 08, 2019, 12:39:58 PM »
actually slightly off topic, neonics do not kill bees, we have using nenics for years, and the minority voice who preach fear have had it banned, the next thing will be the Ban of Roundup, the active Glyphosate is mixed with the Tallow  Amine . one person in the states gets an illness due to Roundup, and the world goes into project fear.
we use, you an i, every day, Tallow Amine, in our soaps, shower gel, shampoo ets, but in such minute proportions you would have to drink q swimming pool full of the stuff,
yes we using companion crops for OSR in trying to fool the Flea Beetle to eat the companion crop , so you partially correct
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #596 on: August 08, 2019, 13:18:34 PM »
Yes, It's like climate change. so called experts can be called in to say that it's man made and others deny it is.

Best case, or worst case depending on your viewpoint is that neonicotinoids slowly kill bees or reduce their colonies ability to survive winter.

I remember 'roseclear' being banned because a woman breathed it in and made herself ill when it clearly says spray down wind on the bottle!! Now I can't easily get rid of my aphids!!
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Offline Al

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #597 on: August 11, 2019, 11:57:05 AM »
Quote from: baldy link=topic=4888.msg55949#msg55949
not least because our fisherman will get back more control of our fishing grounds
britain has 16 fishery patrol boats. The waters are what, 3 times the size of the landmass. Good luck with controlling that!
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Offline Maxi

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UK faces food, fuel and drugs shortages in no-deal Brexit - report
« Reply #598 on: August 18, 2019, 10:32:32 AM »
Is this what you voted for Brexiteers

Not Project Fear this time but reality.

Leaked Cabinet Office papers give "the most comprehensive assessment of the UK's readiness for a no-deal", says the Sunday Times.
A no-deal Brexit could lead to shortages of food, fuel and medicine, as well as a hard border on the island of Ireland, according to leaked official government documents published in the Sunday Times.
The newspaper said the forecasts compiled by the Cabinet Office under the codename Operation Yellowhammer set out the most likely aftershocks of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst case scenarios.
It comes ahead of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's first EU trip this week during which he will demand a new withdrawal agreement and warn how serious he is about pursuing a no-deal Brexit if he does not get one.
The dossier shows that 85% of lorries using the main channel crossings "may not be ready" for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months before the flow of traffic improves, the Times said.
The government also believes a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be likely as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable.
The Times said: "The dossier offers a rare glimpse into the covert planning being carried out by the government to avert a catastrophic collapse in the nation's infrastructure.
"The file, marked 'official-sensitive' requiring security clearance on a 'need to know' basis is remarkable because it gives the most comprehensive assessment of the UK's readiness for a no-deal Brexit."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-faces-food-fuel-and-drugs-shortages-in-no-deal-brexit-report-11788081


Offline baldy

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Brexit: No-deal dossier shows worst-case scenario - Gove
« Reply #599 on: August 18, 2019, 20:48:29 PM »
BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49388402



The contempt for remoaners who constantly stir fear about Brexit is growing so much that there is going to be some sort of civil unrest including shootings of more MPs ....   I'm in no doubt about it.

The remoaners who are trying to undermine no-deal planning are actually making it more likely that there will be no deal when we leave the EU on 31st October because the EU leaders think the remoaners will somehow stop Brexit or at least a no-deal Brexit.

I'm coming around to the idea that some remoaner MPs need to be rounded up and interned for their own safety (and to shut them up until November at least  - ahem).  ;)   ;D
« Last Edit: August 18, 2019, 21:02:01 PM by baldy »
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