Author Topic: Do we really care about Brexit  (Read 54266 times)

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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #630 on: September 12, 2019, 16:32:45 PM »
Once again, remoaners are trying to misinterpret an internal government report on no-deal Brexit preparations, which looks at a reasonable worse case scenraio, by suggesting that the worst case problems that might occur if no further preparations are made will actually occur as if no preparations are being made.

This is plainly dishonest and is shamlessly misleading.

Obviously, the whole purpose of identifying what the worst problems might be is to actually prepare to avoid the problems or at least reduce them to much more manageable levels.

This is exactly what the government is actually doing.

It is a lie to say that the problems envisaged will actually happen.  They might happen if no further preparations are made.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 16:52:01 PM by baldy »
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Offline mojo

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #631 on: September 12, 2019, 17:38:37 PM »
Once again, remoaners are trying to misinterpret an internal government report on no-deal Brexit preparations, which looks at a reasonable worse case scenraio, by suggesting that the worst case problems that might occur if no further preparations are made will actually occur as if no preparations are being made.

This is plainly dishonest and is shamlessly misleading.

Obviously, the whole purpose of identifying what the worst problems might be is to actually prepare to avoid the problems or at least reduce them to much more manageable levels.

This is exactly what the government is actually doing.

It is a lie to say that the problems envisaged will actually happen.  They might happen if no further preparations are made.

I'll bite.

In an assessment of risk, any identified risk must have an event and a probability of it happening.  You then have two initial possible outcomes, one where it doesn't occur and a second where it does happen. You assess the probability of it happening and impact to determine your mitigation action.  This report does not, as you suggest state that this outcome will occur if no action is taken but rather this is the worst outcome despite the mitigation. Unfortunately the worst come has been redacted.

Now the probabilty has not been published or the supporting data and to be frank I wouldn't expect them too. The Op YELLOWHAMMER report is in effect just the exec summary.

What the report does say is that these are the possible outcomes despite the mitigation plans.

Mojo

Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #632 on: September 12, 2019, 17:52:27 PM »


Obviously, the whole purpose of identifying what the worst problems might be is to actually prepare to avoid the problems or at least reduce them to much more manageable levels.





You mean like actually striking a deal??
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #633 on: September 12, 2019, 19:46:39 PM »
Once again, remoaners are trying to misinterpret an internal government report on no-deal Brexit preparations, which looks at a reasonable worse case scenraio, by suggesting that the worst case problems that might occur if no further preparations are made will actually occur as if no preparations are being made.

This is plainly dishonest and is shamlessly misleading.

Obviously, the whole purpose of identifying what the worst problems might be is to actually prepare to avoid the problems or at least reduce them to much more manageable levels.

This is exactly what the government is actually doing.

It is a lie to say that the problems envisaged will actually happen.  They might happen if no further preparations are made.

I'll bite.

In an assessment of risk, any identified risk must have an event and a probability of it happening.  You then have two initial possible outcomes, one where it doesn't occur and a second where it does happen. You assess the probability of it happening and impact to determine your mitigation action.  This report does not, as you suggest state that this outcome will occur if no action is taken but rather this is the worst outcome despite the mitigation. Unfortunately the worst come has been redacted.

Now the probabilty has not been published or the supporting data and to be frank I wouldn't expect them too. The Op YELLOWHAMMER report is in effect just the exec summary.

What the report does say is that these are the possible outcomes despite the mitigation plans.

Mojo

Actually, risk analysis involves more than what you have said, but I'll just stick to what I know in practice (as a former investment surveyor who has actualy done portfolio performance and risk analysis for a major portfolio).

A risk involves a probability of something happening and identifying the factors that affect it and, if possible, the correlation between those risk factors and the degree of change of the outcome - normally expressed as a Beta factor (a multiplier) for volatility. 

All the commentators I have heard today who have read this report say that it is based on identifying the reasonable worst case scenario for outcomes if nothing further to mitigate the risks is done.
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Offline mojo

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #634 on: September 12, 2019, 21:41:09 PM »
Once again, remoaners are trying to misinterpret an internal government report on no-deal Brexit preparations, which looks at a reasonable worse case scenraio, by suggesting that the worst case problems that might occur if no further preparations are made will actually occur as if no preparations are being made.

This is plainly dishonest and is shamlessly misleading.

Obviously, the whole purpose of identifying what the worst problems might be is to actually prepare to avoid the problems or at least reduce them to much more manageable levels.

This is exactly what the government is actually doing.

It is a lie to say that the problems envisaged will actually happen.  They might happen if no further preparations are made.

I'll bite.

In an assessment of risk, any identified risk must have an event and a probability of it happening.  You then have two initial possible outcomes, one where it doesn't occur and a second where it does happen. You assess the probability of it happening and impact to determine your mitigation action.  This report does not, as you suggest state that this outcome will occur if no action is taken but rather this is the worst outcome despite the mitigation. Unfortunately the worst come has been redacted.

Now the probabilty has not been published or the supporting data and to be frank I wouldn't expect them too. The Op YELLOWHAMMER report is in effect just the exec summary.

What the report does say is that these are the possible outcomes despite the mitigation plans.

Mojo

Actually, risk analysis involves more than what you have said, but I'll just stick to what I know in practice (as a former investment surveyor who has actualy done portfolio performance and risk analysis for a major portfolio).

A risk involves a probability of something happening and identifying the factors that affect it and, if possible, the correlation between those risk factors and the degree of change of the outcome - normally expressed as a Beta factor (a multiplier) for volatility. 

All the commentators I have heard today who have read this report say that it is based on identifying the reasonable worst case scenario for outcomes if nothing further to mitigate the risks is done.

As a programme manager for a £700M programe I can assure you that I fully understand how to manage risk.

The YELLOWHAMMER report is not the unmitigated impact it is the mitigated impact for a given probabi!ity.  The published version is exactly the same as 2nd of August leaked report with the oil refinery closure impact redacted. The "reasonably worst" is clearly nonsense designed to give a particular message.  It is either the worst case or it is not.

Mojo

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #635 on: September 13, 2019, 09:07:11 AM »
I’m inclined to think that almost everyone who gets to be a programme manager is basically over promoted beyond their ability to manage anything on the basis of knowing PRINCE 2 and successfully managing projects which luckily did not go wrong. Certainly anyone managing large railway or IT or Defence or NHS projects is bound to be clueless about the really technical details needed .... you just have to remember the long and growing list of major cockups happening with HS2 being the latest scandal.

In my experience, programme managers don’t understand the true meaning of risk analysis. They just know what outcomes would be bad and the usual, practical and best ways to avoid the problems. They are usually clueless about how to actually measure risk and all the various risk factors in any meaningful and mathematically valid way.

I am inclined to think the civil servants involved in measuring the no deal risks would be the worst of the lot and would make normal programme managers or similar look supremely professional and sophisticated ....
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 09:10:25 AM by baldy »
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Offline mojo

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #636 on: September 13, 2019, 10:06:14 AM »
I’m inclined to think that almost everyone who gets to be a programme manager is basically over promoted beyond their ability to manage anything on the basis of knowing PRINCE 2 and successfully managing projects which luckily did not go wrong. Certainly anyone managing large railway or IT or Defence or NHS projects is bound to be clueless about the really technical details needed .... you just have to remember the long and growing list of major cockups happening with HS2 being the latest scandal.

In my experience, programme managers don’t understand the true meaning of risk analysis. They just know what outcomes would be bad and the usual, practical and best ways to avoid the problems. They are usually clueless about how to actually measure risk and all the various risk factors in any meaningful and mathematically valid way.

I am inclined to think the civil servants involved in measuring the no deal risks would be the worst of the lot and would make normal programme managers or similar look supremely professional and sophisticated ....

I find this a very strange post you praise the proffessional staff at Wiltshire Council yet denigrate others without evidence.

HS2 is being delivered by a private company, High Speed Two Ltd.

I do agree that many public projects do run in to trouble but mostly because of desire to protect the programme by committing too early when the end point and associated risks are not fully understood.  A bit like Brexit really.

Mojo

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #637 on: September 13, 2019, 10:13:23 AM »
I did not refer to Wiltshire Council and certainly was not thinking about anyone there as I don't know anyone myself who is or was a programme manager in the sense we are talking about here.

I would not denigrate any staff at Wiltshire Council unless I am being very specific about what is going wrong. My thread about ongoing council standards investigations (based on legal nonsense) certainly does denigrate certain officers involved in legal matters.  I've been threatened with legal action in the past and replied that I'll see them in Court .... with nothing then happening ....

As far as I am aware, the phrase "civil servants" means central government officers, not council officers.  Also, in my experience, senior staff at WC responsible for the largest budgets are immensely well qualified and competent. I just don't include the lawyers in that as they don't actually manage large projects - they give advice on legal matters and quite often fudge what they say according to what some politicians in control want to hear .......  I suppose they know full well how the HR system works to remove staff and the most senior officers when the controlling politicians dislike certain officers who won't bend the law and other rules, such as rearranging the department. Heck, the last council leader actually fired the chief executive, who was doing a very good job, and gave the role to herself (in effect) by not rehiring anyone into the role ...
« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 10:22:48 AM by baldy »
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Offline Maxi

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #638 on: September 13, 2019, 12:11:48 PM »
Quote
Obviously, the whole purpose of identifying what the worst problems might be is to actually prepare to avoid the problems or at least reduce them to much more manageable levels


This is for the country who's people rang 999 when KFC ran out of chicken.
God knows what they will do if some of what's in  operation yellowhammer happens


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-43140836

« Last Edit: September 13, 2019, 18:25:11 PM by Maxi »

Offline mojo

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #639 on: September 13, 2019, 12:57:08 PM »
I did not refer to Wiltshire Council and certainly was not thinking about anyone there as I don't know anyone myself who is or was a programme manager in the sense we are talking about here.

I would not denigrate any staff at Wiltshire Council unless I am being very specific about what is going wrong. My thread about ongoing council standards investigations (based on legal nonsense) certainly does denigrate certain officers involved in legal matters.  I've been threatened with legal action in the past and replied that I'll see them in Court .... with nothing then happening ....

As far as I am aware, the phrase "civil servants" means central government officers, not council officers.  Also, in my experience, senior staff at WC responsible for the largest budgets are immensely well qualified and competent. I just don't include the lawyers in that as they don't actually manage large projects - they give advice on legal matters and quite often fudge what they say according to what some politicians in control want to hear .......  I suppose they know full well how the HR system works to remove staff and the most senior officers when the controlling politicians dislike certain officers who won't bend the law and other rules, such as rearranging the department. Heck, the last council leader actually fired the chief executive, who was doing a very good job, and gave the role to herself (in effect) by not rehiring anyone into the role ...

I suspect we are in more agreement than disagreement.  I know you did not refer to council staff, I was just drawing a comparison regarding your statement about one group of public employees (that I agree with) against your comments about another.  The point I may have being making badly is you chose to denigrate the civil service who are equally well qualified and competent but who legally are denied the right of reply and in some cases (quire rightly) have significant political restrictions placed on them.

One quick comment on the MOD, they are the only government department that is deemed competent to spend taxpayers money without referral to the Treasury and not just on national security grounds.  Having said that all big MOD projects do need Treasury endorsement.

Mojo

Offline Maxi

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #640 on: September 13, 2019, 23:39:22 PM »
Cameron is back in the news,and accuses Mr Johnson and Mr Gove of behaving “appallingly” during the referendum campaign, and claims Mr Johnson only campaigned for Leave for his own career prospects.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/david-cameron-attacks-boris-johnson-and-michael-gove-over-brexit-as-he-breaks-silence/ar-AAHfS6R?ocid=ientp

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #641 on: September 14, 2019, 03:59:28 AM »
Cameron is back in the news,and accuses Mr Johnson and Mr Gove of behaving “appallingly” during the referendum campaign, and claims Mr Johnson only campaigned for Leave for his own career prospects.

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/david-cameron-attacks-boris-johnson-and-michael-gove-over-brexit-as-he-breaks-silence/ar-AAHfS6R?ocid=ientp


What do you expect from The Arch Remainer and Leader himself?


Afterall, he was in charge of and himself led the official Remain campaign and lost .... very badly ..... and resigned when he said he would not ....... and then found himself unemployable and generally reviled ........


Nah ...... no credibility left ...... and obviously stirring everything up to sell his book .......
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 08:35:24 AM by baldy »
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Offline baldy

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Labour MPs offer backing to revised Brexit withdrawal deal
« Reply #642 on: September 14, 2019, 04:06:36 AM »
I have to say that the latest hints from the DUP and others that the shape of a doable deal is emerging is probably the best news in a long time for everyone as leaving with a deal is best for everyone regardless of whether you wanted leave or remain in 2016 ...


The Times: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mps-offer-backing-to-revised-brexit-withdrawal-deal-df3b9w7gd?shareToken=cb7bbadc47fcfedf8f17cbfe5c8fb5f7




Labour MPs offer backing to revised Brexit withdrawal deal


Boris Johnson’s hopes of getting a deal through the Commons have been given a boost by Labour MPs who are indicating that they could back a new compromise.

The prime minister said that a “rough shape of a deal to be done” was emerging before his first meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, the outgoing president of the European Commission, on Monday. He will also meet Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator.

The Times revealed yesterday that the DUP was shifting some of its red lines to unlock a deal with the EU. Critically, the Northern Irish party has privately indicated that it could accept regulatory checks in the Irish Sea and divergence from Britain with the consent of the province’s democratic institutions.

Mr Johnson said that he was hopeful about getting a new deal despite senior DUP figures, including its leader, Arlene Foster, and Sammy Wilson, its Brexit spokesman, playing down the concessions. After an event in Rotherham yesterday Mr Johnson said: “We are working incredibly hard to get a deal. There is the rough shape of the deal to be done.

“As some of you may have seen, I myself have been to talk to various other EU leaders, particularly in Germany, in France and in Ireland, where we made a good deal of progress. I’m seeing the president of the [European] Commission and the chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, on Monday and we will talk about the ideas that we’ve been working on and we will see where we get. I would say I’m cautiously optimistic.”

With at least some Tory Brexiteers irreconcilable to a repackaged version of Theresa May’s deal, Mr Johnson’s hopes rest on attracting more Labour support than his predecessor.

The Labour MPs Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock and Yvonne Fovargue indicated that they could back the emerging compromise deal. “We need to bring this process to a swift conclusion and to deliver the result of the referendum and all sides must be prepared to compromise,” Ms Fovargue said. The Makerfield MP, who did not vote for Mrs May’s deal on the three times it was put to the Commons, added: “There are a number of Labour MPs who are committed to this process and want the chance to scrutinise and vote for a deal.”

Ms Flint, the MP for Don Valley who voted for Mrs May’s deal twice, said: “I think what we are hearing from the DUP and the prime minister is a willingness to compromise to get a deal. That will avoid most people’s worst outcome. There is a sizeable cross-party block building up [in support of a deal]”.

Mr Kinnock, the MP for Aberavon, said that Mr Johnson would need to resurrect commitments offered by Mrs May to Jeremy Corbyn to secure support from across the political divide but also called for more compromise. “It’s very encouraging to see signs of the DUP edging towards compromise, which will boost support among Conservative MPs. But to maximise Labour support the prime minister must ensure that he includes the important commitments and concessions that were secured by the Labour negotiating team through the cross-party talks.

“If he is able to combine an acceptable position on the backstop with a declaration on the future relationship that protects jobs and livelihoods, he will have a package that can command a stable parliamentary majority.”

A spokeswoman for the European Commission said that Mr Juncker was “looking forward to working constructively” with the prime minister. She said the talks would be held at a “neutral location” rather than the British embassy or a commission venue. Mr Juncker will then address the European parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday about the progress in the negotiations.

Ms Foster sought to preserve the DUP’s public position. “We are keen to see a sensible deal but not one that divides the internal market of the UK,” she said. “We will not support arrangements that create a barrier to east-west trade.” Mr Wilson went further in denying a shift. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today that the proposals ran “contrary to the position we’ve adopted throughout negotiations”. He acknowledged, though, that his party had softened its language.

Despite Ms Foster’s and Mr Wilson’s insistence, party sources say that they could accept regulatory divergence with the “consent” of Northern Irish democratic institutions. They made clear that this would not require the executive and assembly to be restored before October 31. “That could happen in the transition period,” they said. They were “positive” that a deal could be done.

The deal could find favour with the EU, which fears Northern Ireland becoming a back door into its single market for non-compliant goods if the UK signs trade deals with countries such as the United States.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 04:38:52 AM by baldy »
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Labour MPs offer backing to revised Brexit withdrawal deal
« Reply #643 on: September 14, 2019, 10:29:33 AM »

I have to say that the latest hints from the DUP and others that the shape of a doable deal is emerging is probably the best news in a long time for everyone as leaving with a deal is best for everyone regardless of whether you wanted leave or remain in 2016 ...




You've changed your stance a bit Baldy?

I thought you were going to throw your body into the ditch along with BoJo.  ;D
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #644 on: September 15, 2019, 11:45:23 AM »
TBH I've gone past the point of caring whether we leave with or without a deal as we'll cope one way or another anyway ...

I've never considered the issue to be one where I would put my own life on the line. That was just Boris being dramatic ....

One day, we are going to have to see Boris in a pantomine or someone pretending to be him .......
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