Author Topic: Do we really care about Brexit  (Read 127355 times)

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Offline Shizzy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #735 on: October 30, 2019, 14:47:25 PM »
Dorian I think you are right. I predict another hung Parliament.

In any case it doesn't matter who wins, as it is clear that the losers can just refuse to accept the result and demand a re-run until you get the result you want. After all you can't have too much democracy they say.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 15:44:16 PM by Shizzy »
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Offline Michael

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #736 on: October 30, 2019, 16:08:30 PM »

In any case it doesn't matter who wins, as it is clear that the losers can just refuse to accept the result and demand a re-run until you get the result you want. After all you can't have too much democracy they say.
It seems that you've not been listening to JC, election, negotiation, deal, put it to the people. Labour Party policy has been the same since 2017, and reaffirmed at their 2019 conference.
The media have not been able to understand LP policy and have put all sorts of spin on it, but really it's quite simple, if your a leaver vote Labour, if your a remainer vote Labour, and if you respect the views of all voters vote Labour.

Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #737 on: October 30, 2019, 16:22:43 PM »


In any case it doesn't matter who wins, as it is clear that the losers can just refuse to accept the result and demand a re-run until you get the result you want. After all you can't have too much democracy they say.

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Offline Maxi

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #738 on: October 30, 2019, 18:16:01 PM »
Brexit deal means ‘£70bn hit to UK by 2029'

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU, a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found.
It concluded that GDP would be 3.5% lower in 10 years' time under the deal.
The independent forecaster's outlook is one of the first assessments of how the economy will fare under the new deal.
But the Treasury said it plans on a 'more ambitious' agreement with the EU than 'NIESR is basing its findings on'.
A spokesman said: "We are aiming to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union, which is more ambitious than the standard free trade deal that NIESR has based its findings on."
NIESR said approval of the prime minister's deal "would reduce the risk of a disorderly outcome, but eliminate the possibility of a closer trading relationship with the EU".
Despite the agreement between the EU and the UK removing uncertainty, customs and regulatory barriers would "hinder goods and services trade with the continent leaving all regions of the United Kingdom worse off than they would be if the UK stayed in the EU," NIESR said.
"We estimate that, in the long run, the economy would be 3.5% smaller with the deal compared to continued EU membership," it added.
The report also found the proposed free trade deal with the EU was slightly worse for the economy than Theresa May's deal of last year.
Her deal would have reduced the size of the economy by 3% over the same period, NIESR said.
Founded in 1938, NIESR has no party political ties and is the UK's oldest independent economic research institute.
A year ago, it conducted a study commissioned by the People's Vote which said GDP would be 3.9% lower by 2030.
Earlier this month, Bank of England governor Mark Carney welcomed the new Brexit deal, saying it was a "net economic positive" as it "takes away the tail risk of a disorderly Brexit".
However, the governor said that the "different" future relationship negotiated with the EU meant it "remains to be seen" if overall the deal would be as positive for the UK economy as the deal put forward by Mr Johnson's predecessor Mrs May.
Chancellor Sajid Javid has refused to recalculate Treasury assessments on the impact of the government's Brexit deal, saying it is "self-evidently in our economic interest".
Slowing demand
NIESR's study modelled different Brexit scenarios against a baseline of the UK staying in the EU.
In the case of a no-deal Brexit, it said, the economy would shrink by 5.6%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50219036

Almost the equivalent of relegation of the British economy from the premiership to the championship

« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 18:19:08 PM by Maxi »

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #739 on: October 30, 2019, 19:35:41 PM »
This is a deeply misleading set of claims.

First of all, the prediction is based on a false model of the economy because the Tories plan a better free trade deal with the EU than the model assumes which means that actually our overall rate of growth may well be better over the next 10 years than the model assumes.

Secondly, you need to be clear that the economy will continue to grow regardless of Brexit. The 3.5% mentioned is based on the larger economy that would exist in 10 years time. In effect, the prediction is about a slightly smaller rate of growth of the economy and over 10 years the slightly smaller growth would accumulate.

Thirdly, it is important not to forget that the reason Brexiteers want Brexit is about much more than our economy, important though that is.

Fourthly, it is difficult to predict exactly what will happen with our economy but it stands to reason that we will do well to reduce our attachment to a trading block that is, in relative terms, growing much more slowly than other parts of the world.

As the EU is growing far more slowly than other major economic blocks, it is obviously a good idea to attach our economy far more to faster growing parts of the world, not least Asia which is storming ahead, but also the USA which is in its own right storming ahead of the EU (and actually wants to do a free trade deal with us to our mutual advantage). 
« Last Edit: October 31, 2019, 07:01:09 AM by baldy »
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Offline Maxi

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #740 on: October 30, 2019, 20:47:59 PM »
Does anyone know of an economic report by economic experts which tells us the benefits of Brexit, to the economy, because I am still looking and cant find it.

Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #741 on: October 30, 2019, 22:31:36 PM »
I doubt if any such report is available for public use.  I imagine all sorts of reports have been written for private clients (even PLC banks) who have paid for it.

When I was considering joining UKIP 4 years ago, I asked UKIP to check if there was any such report and, after about 3 months, I was told that there is no such report.

I think one of the issues is that any such forecast would be something of an unreliable guess because so many factors and variables would have to be predicted.

It is simply typical that large corporate organisations / businesses who are prepared to support Project Fear would help pay for reports undermining Brexit and ensure it is published widely as part of a campaign to influence the debate ...
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #742 on: October 31, 2019, 08:40:54 AM »

I doubt if any such report is available for public use. 



So do I. Probably because they don't exist.


When I was considering joining UKIP 4 years ago, I asked UKIP to check if there was any such report and, after about 3 months, I was told that there is no such report.



Blimey, if UKIP couldn't even make up a report extolling the economic benefits of Brexit it must be really bad !!!
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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #743 on: October 31, 2019, 10:03:17 AM »
I did not ask for a report by UKIP. I specifically asked for one written by expert economists.
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Offline Bob DeBilda

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #744 on: November 13, 2019, 08:30:22 AM »

Taken from the 'badger' thread because Dorian got upset..

The Hard Right keep saying 17.2 Million voted  to just leave that is a lie we was promised a good deal and if we don't get it I am one Happy to stay in the EU rather than vote Johnson/Farage.

I don't remember anything on the ballot paper that said "Leave with a good deal but if you don't like the deal feel free to change your mind and remain" Who made this promise to you Jim?

Two options that I recall (it was an awful long time ago) were 1. Remain in EU. 2 Leave the EU If you voted leave then I'm afraid you get what you voted for. Even if Labour win the GE and try and renegotiate it's not going to be any different to the deal agreed now.

 

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Offline baldy

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Re: Do we really care about Brexit
« Reply #745 on: Yesterday at 17:56:40 »
So, after a bit of a break for the General Election, we are back to our favourite long-running topic ...


Looks like Boris will Get BREXIT Done (or at least get us out via his withdrawal agreement) by the end of January, whether Remoaners or bad losers like it or not.


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