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General Election 2019

Started by Maxi, November 03, 2019, 00:07:24 AM

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Yup - that might be the WTF election moment of all time (if true) !
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I am welsh I have lots of family in wales I just saw a poll that puts Labour up 9% in Wales 3 weeks ago the tories looked like they would do well not now the Brexit party have dropped -7% and not many Voters from the Valleys would go from Labour to Tory they would go Labour to Brexit I don't think having Johnson waffling on and not actually answering the Questions is going down well and two more weeks of Get Brexit Done Over Ready put it in the Microwave will cost him.


I think the Tory team and the Brexit Party team have agreed some sort of informal and locally-based collaboration but they obviously deny any formal "pact".

I sense that it is simply that the Brexit Party will not run against Tories where Conservative MPs won last time (which we all know already) and then have negotiated on a local level seat by seat with the Chair of each Conservative association about the best tactic to get a Leaver elected. In many northern and Welsh seats this will mean that where the Tory has no chance of winning the Tories will put up a "paper" candidate, meaning that they fill in the paperwork to run with their candidate's name on the ballot and then do absolutely no or very minimal campaigning eg. just the one mailshot from Boris in the mail and definitely no local leaflets or canvassing with the candidate him/herself mentioned. I imagine this might occur both ways as it would benefit both parties to be able to stand down their election teams in some areas and send them to other nearby constituencies to help boost campaigns which are close to winning and just need another heave etc.

Contrary to the polls, I think the Brexit Party will this way get a dozen or so northern seats, which will absolutely put the Brexit Party on the map ..... though it will be a one off as they will be out of a job by the time of the following GE.  I suppose most of them will simply join the Tories before the next GE.

I also think Boris is on course for an outright win with a majority of about 20 - 50 or so .... unless some amazing scandal breaks with credible claims that Boris and half his team are actually Russians or have hidden off-shore income that they don't pay tax on etc ...

I am convinced that Boris has an extremely competent campaigning team around him who know how to win and their tactics even include how Boris behaves when he bumbles about and just says Get Brexit Done and We've got an oven ready deal just put it in the microwave at gas  mark 2 or just add water .... I don't know how to cook too well ....      This guff really goes down well with some folk.  I've watched interviews on TV where northern Labour voters say they can't trust Boris but they like him and will vote just this once for him to get Brexit done.

Once he gets his working majority, he will use an extremely clever team to keep on campaigning for an enormous Tory poll lead and will push through all sorts of legislation that will turn this country into an economic powerhouse, especially by investing in our poorer regions that really do need the investment to help make them more productive.  I think Boris is right to keep going on about his record as London Mayor (ie. what happens when he is in charge but lets properly clever and qualified experts do the work for him). He is a Liberal pretending to be a bit of a Right wing Tory whilst all the time focusing on what the majority actually want ....
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Quote from: Bob DeBilda on November 26, 2019, 09:37:35 AM
I have never read so much


Have a read of some of your own posts
Please would you walk a little faster, or get the f*** out of my way.

Bob DeBilda

Yeah, you're right. Bullsugar, like love is in the eye of the beholder.  ;D

I now regret posting that comment as we are all entitled to opinions no matter what anyone else thinks of them.

I suppose without the extreme right wing views of Baldy and the extreme left wing views of others life, as far as politics is concerned anyway, would be boring.

Protect Local wildlife, Keep your cat indoors!



Jeremy Corbyn has decided not to take part in two television debates this week, it has emerged, in the wake of his disastrous interview with Andrew Neil on BBC One.

Sky News was forced to cancel a leaders’ debate on Thursday after Mr Corbyn refused to sign up to the programme, and a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place.

Sky sources confirmed they had called off the programme after both Boris Johnson and Mr Corbyn declined to take part in a three-way debate  with Jo Swinson, the Liberal Democrat leader.

Mr Corbyn will instead appear in a Channel 4 debate on climate change this evening, which is unlikely to stray on to controversial issues such as Labour’s handling of anti-Semitism.

The Prime Minister is understood to have snubbed the programme amid ongoing tensions with Sky, which in turn is refusing to allow Michael Gove to stand in for him.

Mr Corbyn’s absence from the debates suggests his duties are being scaled back, with polls showing he is the least popular opposition leader of the past 45 years.

It stands in contrast to his approach to the 2017 election campaign, when he was judged to have performed strongly after agreeing to a BBC seven-way leaders debate, that was boycotted by Theresa May.

Lord Kerslake, a senior adviser to Labour, hinted earlier this week that Mr Corbyn could be replaced as party leader after the election as the price of a power-sharing deal with the SNP and Liberal Democrats.

However, allies of Mr Corbyn last night dismissed suggestions he was stepping back from the spotlight, pointing out that climate change was one of Labour’s top priorities.

One said Ms Long-Bailey, who is increasingly seen as Mr Corbyn’s favourite to succeed him, was well qualified to represent the party.

“She’s a prominent member of the shadow cabinet whose brief covers a very wide range of areas,” the source added. “She’s well placed to speak on Brexit, the economy and the climate crisis.”

Separately, a row erupted last night after the BBC revealed that it had not yet confirmed a date for Mr Johnson to be interviewed by Mr Neil, who is widely regarded as the corporation’s toughest interviewer.

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, claimed that Mr Johnson was “running scared” and trying to delay his interview until after the “main postal vote period”.

He added: “The BBC is hardly covering itself in glory in this election. It should’ve fixed all dates in advance.”
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It's the TORYGRAPH I would expect no less.


Yes, but it's still totally true.
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NB. Alternative name: Lord High Commander Dr. Baldy


Telegraph:   Tories on course to win 68-seat majority as poll predicts party will get 359 seats compared to 211 for Labour

The Conservatives are on course for their best general election result since 1987 by winning a 68-seat majority, a major poll predicted last night.
YouGov predicted that a swathe of Labour seats in the “red wall” of the north and Midlands will fall to the Tories, giving Boris Johnson 359 seats, 42 more than in 2017, with Jeremy Corbyn losing 51 of his 2017 seats to end up with just 211 MPs.
The poll put the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote, 11 points ahead of Labour on 32.
The Liberal Democrats’ poor performance in the election means they will lose MPs, according to the survey, with the Brexit Party failing to pick up any seats at all.
The YouGov poll of 100,000 people predicts the results in individual seats using a method that correctly forecast the 2017 hung parliament, making it the most significant poll of the general election so far.
A 68-seat majority would be the biggest for the Conservatives since Margaret Thatcher’s 102-seat majority in 1987, and Labour’s worst showing since 1983.
In total, YouGov predicts that 44 Labour seats will fall to the Tories, including the Bolsover seat held by Dennis Skinner since 1970 and the West Bromwich East seat vacated by Labour’s deputy leader Tom Watson.
Other predicted gains include Barrow and Furness, Wakefield, Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Derby North, Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby, Stoke-on-Trent North, Stoke-On-Trent Central, Crewe and Nantwich, Darlington, Sahemhorpe, Workington and Ipswich and Leigh.
Labour is predicted not to gain a single seat from any other party. Of the 76 Labour-held seats with a majority of fewer than 8,000, Jeremy Corbyn’s party is behind in 43.
The largest predicted swings are in pro-Leave constituencies, with a 9 per cent swing in Mr Watson’s seat and a similar swing in Don Valley, held by Caroline Flint.
While the Liberal Democrats are expected to gain one more seat than they did in 2017, giving them 13 MPs, they are set to lose all of the MPs who have defected to the party during the course of the last parliament, who had boosted their numbers to 20. The SNP is predicted to take 43 seats, an increase of eight.
Boris Johnson’s predicted vote share of 43 per cent is similar to that achieved by Theresa May in 2017, but Labour is losing sufficient votes to other parties to hand him a healthy majority, YouGov forecasts.
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Mail Online:   Labour poll panic! Jeremy Corbyn changes tactics in Leave-voting heartlands as survey that foretold 2017 result shows Boris Johnson is on track for a huge 68-seat majority - but nervous Tories warn against 'complacency'
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The Times:

MRP election poll: Boris Johnson heads for big majority

Only survey to forecast hung parliament in last election predicts Tories will win 359 seats â€" with Labour down to 211

Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago.

The Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Liberal Democrats 13 if the election were held today, according to a seat-by-seat analysis based on current polling by YouGov for The Times.

That result would give Mr Johnson a majority of 68 as he made gains at Labour’s expense, particularly in the Midlands and north of England. Labour would suffer its second-worst postwar defeat, with Jeremy Corbyn’s total two above Michael Foot’s in 1983.

However, the projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative. YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 percentage points to less than 7 could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority.

Based on more than 100,000 interviews over seven days, the pollster has modelled voting preferences based on age, gender, education, past vote and other factors, along with local political circumstances. The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model is then applied to the demographic make-up and individual characteristics of each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain to provide projected vote shares for each seat. It was used for the first time in a general election in 2017. The Times published a YouGov-MRP poll that accurately predicted a hung parliament when many other polls were pointing to a big Tory majority ten days from the vote on June 8.

Today’s version is based on national vote shares of the Conservatives on 43 per cent, Labour 32, Lib Dems 14 and the Brexit Party 3. The pollster will repeat the model before election day using updated results. The analysis suggests that this time Mr Johnson is holding off the Lib Dem threat in most Tory seats that voted to stay in the EU and will not suffer anything like the wipeout in Scotland that some had predicted.

Of the 58 seats predicted to change hands on December 12, 44 are Tory gains from Labour. However, Labour is within 3 points of retaining 16 seats the model predicts it would lose now.
The SNP would recover some of its losses in Scotland, taking eight seats from rival parties under the model. It predicts that the Tories would lose two of their 12 Scottish seats and Labour would lose five.

The analysis suggests that the casualties for Labour could include Dennis Skinner in Bolsover and Caroline Flint in Don Valley despite their support for Brexit in the Commons. For the Tories Zac Goldsmith appears doomed in Richmond Park.

Mr Johnson is forecast to hold Uxbridge & South Ruislip comfortably.

If the prime minister achieves this result he will have torn down the “red wall” of Labour seats from Great Grimsby to the Vale of Clwyd in a realignment of politics. His aide, Dominic Cummings, warned against complacency, writing in his blog: “Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.”

Mr Corbyn is on course to lose 51 constituencies. Labour will win 211 seats â€" two more than Foot â€" and fail to make any gains, according to the YouGov modelling, which predicts the party will lose 44 seats to the Conservatives, five to the SNP and one to the Liberal Democrats.

The result would represent a repudiation of Mr Corbyn’s push for a second EU referendum and decision to be “neutral” on whether he would campaign for Leave or Remain. All bar two of the potential Tory gains from Labour voted Leave in 2016.

The biggest Tory swings are forecast in constituencies with the strongest Leave vote. In West Bromwich East the analysis suggested that the party was on course to overturn a 7,713-vote majority; in Don Valley they are expected to overturn a majority of 5,169.
Six Labour marginals that have never voted Conservative would turn blue, as would at least nine seats that have been Labour since the Second World War.

The Lib Dems are forecast to make one net gain on 2017. The SNP would make gains but the Scottish Tories would avoid the wipeout strategists feared. The Brexit Party wins no seats.

The modelling suggests that Labour seats with majorities below 8,000 begin to fall in north Wales, where the Tories are forecast to win four seats: Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South, Wrexham and Ynys Mon.

The biggest Tory gains are forecast to be in the Midlands, where it could pick up nine seats from Labour. In the West Midlands, the potential Conservative gains include Dudley North, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East and Wolverhampton South West.

In Nottinghamshire, the modelling suggests the Tories would pick up Ashfield and Bassetlaw. In Derbyshire potential gains include Bolsover and Derby North. In Staffordshire the party is predicted to gain three seats: Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Stoke-on-Trent North.

In Cheshire the model projects that the Tories would win three seats â€" Crewe & Nantwich, Warrington South and Weaver Vale. Bury South and Leigh in Greater Manchester were also expected to turn blue, and Blackpool South and Hyndburn in Lancashire.

There are also significant gains in Yorkshire, with the Tories picking up three seats in South Yorkshire â€" Don Valley, Penistone & Stocksbridge and Rother Valley â€" and four in West Yorkshire including Dewsbury, Keighley and Wakefield. Bishop Auckland, Darlington and Stockton South are all expected to turn blue in the northeast.
Under the model the Lib Dems would gain only one seat on the 12 it won at the last election â€" far fewer than the 20 it had when parliament was dissolved this month thanks to a spate of high-profile defections. No defectors would win their seats, the analysis suggests.


  • The party would retake Sheffield Hallam, Sir Nick Clegg’s former seat, from Labour, and the Remain strongholds of Cheltenham, Richmond Park and St Albans from the Tories. It would lose Eastbourne and North Norfolk to the Conservatives and one of its Scottish seats to the SNP. Were that result borne out on December 12 it would prompt an inquest into Jo Swinson’s leadership of the party she took over in July.

    The Brexit Party, which has stood aside in all the seats the Tories won last time, appears to have widespread support in a few seats. In the Labour strongholds of Barnsley Central and Barnsley East it is on 25 and 24 per cent respectively, although Labour still has a commanding lead in both. In Hartlepool, where Richard Tice, the Brexit Party chairman, is the candidate, it is on 23 per cent, behind the Conservatives on 31 and Labour on 40.

    The SNP’s 43 seats would be an improvement of eight on 2017. Five gains would come from Labour, two from the Tories and one from the Lib Dems.

    Scottish Conservatives had feared a much worse result north of the border, having expanded rapidly from one MP in 2015 to 13 in 2017. Only two of those 13 â€" Paul Masterton in East Renfrewshire and Stephen Kerr in Stirling â€" would lose. Mr Masterton, however, is within a percentage point of the SNP
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I think the last few elections have taught us one thing. Pollsters nowadays are unable to predict UK elections with any great certainty.
Artificial Intelligence is no match for Natural Stupidity.


More like it taught us that most pollsters, who just take samples across the country with little seat by seat analysis, get it wrong.

This latest poll is by the one pollster that got the last election result correct.

Having said that, things could still change and I am expecting the Tory poll lead to fall towards polling day, but only a little .... not least because postal voting has already started.

My prediction is a comfortable Boris win with a 20 - 50 seat majority.
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i will challenge your prediction  for £20 and give £20 to a charity selected fro, the WTF selected on the WTF.......
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