The Times:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r?shareToken=0798e6f812abbb3c9f7434958bd9f957MRP election poll: Boris Johnson heads for big majorityOnly survey to forecast hung parliament in last election predicts Tories will win 359 seats — with Labour down to 211Boris Johnson is on course for a comfortable majority, according to a polling model that accurately predicted the election outcome two years ago.
The Conservatives would win 359 seats, Labour 211, the SNP 43 and the Liberal Democrats 13 if the election were held today, according to a seat-by-seat analysis based on current polling by YouGov for The Times.
That result would give Mr Johnson a majority of 68 as he made gains at Labour’s expense, particularly in the Midlands and north of England. Labour would suffer its second-worst postwar defeat, with Jeremy Corbyn’s total two above Michael Foot’s in 1983.
However, the projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative. YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 percentage points to less than 7 could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority.
Based on more than 100,000 interviews over seven days, the pollster has modelled voting preferences based on age, gender, education, past vote and other factors, along with local political circumstances. The multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model is then applied to the demographic make-up and individual characteristics of each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain to provide projected vote shares for each seat. It was used for the first time in a general election in 2017. The Times published a YouGov-MRP poll that accurately predicted a hung parliament when many other polls were pointing to a big Tory majority ten days from the vote on June 8.
Today’s version is based on national vote shares of the Conservatives on 43 per cent, Labour 32, Lib Dems 14 and the Brexit Party 3. The pollster will repeat the model before election day using updated results. The analysis suggests that this time Mr Johnson is holding off the Lib Dem threat in most Tory seats that voted to stay in the EU and will not suffer anything like the wipeout in Scotland that some had predicted.
Of the 58 seats predicted to change hands on December 12, 44 are Tory gains from Labour. However, Labour is within 3 points of retaining 16 seats the model predicts it would lose now.
The SNP would recover some of its losses in Scotland, taking eight seats from rival parties under the model. It predicts that the Tories would lose two of their 12 Scottish seats and Labour would lose five.
The analysis suggests that the casualties for Labour could include Dennis Skinner in Bolsover and Caroline Flint in Don Valley despite their support for Brexit in the Commons. For the Tories Zac Goldsmith appears doomed in Richmond Park.
Mr Johnson is forecast to hold Uxbridge & South Ruislip comfortably.
If the prime minister achieves this result he will have torn down the “red wall” of Labour seats from Great Grimsby to the Vale of Clwyd in a realignment of politics. His aide, Dominic Cummings, warned against complacency, writing in his blog: “Trust me, as someone who has worked on lots of campaigns, things are MUCH tighter than they seem and there is a very real possibility of a hung parliament.”
Mr Corbyn is on course to lose 51 constituencies. Labour will win 211 seats — two more than Foot — and fail to make any gains, according to the YouGov modelling, which predicts the party will lose 44 seats to the Conservatives, five to the SNP and one to the Liberal Democrats.
The result would represent a repudiation of Mr Corbyn’s push for a second EU referendum and decision to be “neutral” on whether he would campaign for Leave or Remain. All bar two of the potential Tory gains from Labour voted Leave in 2016.
The biggest Tory swings are forecast in constituencies with the strongest Leave vote. In West Bromwich East the analysis suggested that the party was on course to overturn a 7,713-vote majority; in Don Valley they are expected to overturn a majority of 5,169.
Six Labour marginals that have never voted Conservative would turn blue, as would at least nine seats that have been Labour since the Second World War.
The Lib Dems are forecast to make one net gain on 2017. The SNP would make gains but the Scottish Tories would avoid the wipeout strategists feared. The Brexit Party wins no seats.
The modelling suggests that Labour seats with majorities below 8,000 begin to fall in north Wales, where the Tories are forecast to win four seats: Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South, Wrexham and Ynys Mon.
The biggest Tory gains are forecast to be in the Midlands, where it could pick up nine seats from Labour. In the West Midlands, the potential Conservative gains include Dudley North, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East and Wolverhampton South West.
In Nottinghamshire, the modelling suggests the Tories would pick up Ashfield and Bassetlaw. In Derbyshire potential gains include Bolsover and Derby North. In Staffordshire the party is predicted to gain three seats: Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent Central and Stoke-on-Trent North.
In Cheshire the model projects that the Tories would win three seats — Crewe & Nantwich, Warrington South and Weaver Vale. Bury South and Leigh in Greater Manchester were also expected to turn blue, and Blackpool South and Hyndburn in Lancashire.
There are also significant gains in Yorkshire, with the Tories picking up three seats in South Yorkshire — Don Valley, Penistone & Stocksbridge and Rother Valley — and four in West Yorkshire including Dewsbury, Keighley and Wakefield. Bishop Auckland, Darlington and Stockton South are all expected to turn blue in the northeast.
Under the model the Lib Dems would gain only one seat on the 12 it won at the last election — far fewer than the 20 it had when parliament was dissolved this month thanks to a spate of high-profile defections. No defectors would win their seats, the analysis suggests.
The party would retake Sheffield Hallam, Sir Nick Clegg’s former seat, from Labour, and the Remain strongholds of Cheltenham, Richmond Park and St Albans from the Tories. It would lose Eastbourne and North Norfolk to the Conservatives and one of its Scottish seats to the SNP. Were that result borne out on December 12 it would prompt an inquest into Jo Swinson’s leadership of the party she took over in July.
The Brexit Party, which has stood aside in all the seats the Tories won last time, appears to have widespread support in a few seats. In the Labour strongholds of Barnsley Central and Barnsley East it is on 25 and 24 per cent respectively, although Labour still has a commanding lead in both. In Hartlepool, where Richard Tice, the Brexit Party chairman, is the candidate, it is on 23 per cent, behind the Conservatives on 31 and Labour on 40.
The SNP’s 43 seats would be an improvement of eight on 2017. Five gains would come from Labour, two from the Tories and one from the Lib Dems.
Scottish Conservatives had feared a much worse result north of the border, having expanded rapidly from one MP in 2015 to 13 in 2017. Only two of those 13 — Paul Masterton in East Renfrewshire and Stephen Kerr in Stirling — would lose. Mr Masterton, however, is within a percentage point of the SNP
